Chapter 43 Financial Crisis 2
The first and middle of October were spent in suspicion, worry and wait-and-see. People did not care about the current stock price drop because "organized support" was talked about by almost everyone.
On the 23rd, Fisher (Philip Fisher, a famous securities analyst) and Mitchell once again sang long, but the stock price fell seriously in the afternoon. The irony is that when Fisher evaluated the prospects of basic industries in the United States, he saw supply and demand problems in many industries and the prospects were quite unstable. In August 1929, he submitted a report to senior bank executives that "the most serious short market in 25 years will unfold." This can be said to be the most amazing stock market prediction in a young man's life. It's a pity that Fisher is "short and long", he said: "I can't help but be fooled by the strength of the stock market. So I looked everywhere for some relatively cheap stocks and objects worth investing in, because they haven't risen enough yet." He Invest a few thousand dollars into 3 stocks. These three stocks are all low P/E stocks, one is a locomotive company, one is an advertising billboard company, and the other is a taxi company.
At this moment, "organized support" is still being talked about, and even President Hoover claims that the U.S. economy is fundamentally sound, but an atmosphere of alarm has enveloped Wall Street.
October 24, 1929, New York, USA, Stock Exchange.
In future generations, you only need to download the trading software of a securities company and you can conduct transactions through your mobile phone anytime and anywhere, which is extremely convenient. But now is an era when even home landlines are not widely available. If you want to buy and sell securities, you can only go to the exchange.
Therefore, the exchange is bustling every day except Saturdays and Sundays, and today is no exception.
Before the market opened, the exchange was already crowded with people. Because Monday's trading volume reached 1.87 million shares, it became the third largest daily trading volume in history. When everyone was excitedly discussing how much their stocks would rise today, they were horrified to find that something was wrong! !
More than just a little, the stocks that were thriving yesterday suddenly began to decline sharply without warning! !
"Damn it, sell the stocks!" Everyone was shouting, rushing to the counter to sell their stocks.
No one will consider that this will further increase the decline of the stock. Everyone just wants to keep their own money. After all, many people here have invested their life savings in the stock market!
Soon, the quotation machines malfunctioned due to the plummeting. Some people sold their stocks due to uncertainty and worries, and some people were unable to cope with the margin calls and were forced to liquidate their positions. By 11:30 in the morning, the place was in a mess, and the self-proclaimed smart people were here. Losing one's mind, becoming crazy, and falling into a daze, maybe the devil has just come, or maybe people think that God has never come.
The New York Stock Exchange has been standing for 112 years. During this period, there have been several crises, but they have recovered quickly. There has never been such a long-lasting crisis. A large number of people who want to buy the bottom began to build new positions, or in the last few days of October Or in November. They can imagine that less than two years later, these stocks will not be worth 30%.
On the weekend after Black Thursday, bankers responded quickly and joined forces to protect the market. The panic in the market seemed to subside, and the market began to rebound. Over the weekend, President Hoover spoke again: The country's basic business conditions, whether it is commodity production or sales, are on a healthy and prosperous basis. Other political and business figures also expressed the same opinion, so people expected that Monday's buying would regain lost ground. , God comes again.
But on Monday, the disaster really began, and once it started it wasn't easy to stop.
On the 28th, the market fell 49 points, with a trading volume of 9.25 million shares. Bankers met again. Of course, the market is still healthy.
On the 29th, the darkest day since the advent of the New York Stock Exchange, trading volume reached 16.41 million shares, the average industrial index fell 43 points, and investment trust stocks suffered heavy losses due to the emergence of the reverse leverage effect. The stock price shrunk by almost half, and some even fell by more than 2/3. The bankers held two more meetings that day, and the conclusions were very dull, but later it was discovered that some bankers had also begun to sell.
No one believes in “organized support” anymore. Thousands of Americans watched as their life savings evaporated in a matter of days. This is the darkest day in the history of U.S. securities. It is the most influential and harmful economic event in U.S. history, and its impact has spread to Western countries and even the entire world.
On the 30th, the stock market experienced a technical rebound, so even Rockefeller expressed his confidence in the stock market, and Hoover also gave a speech. So far, his role has only been to repeat the argument that the stock market is healthy. In addition, there are still people who hold such great opinions. There are executives from the Department of Commerce and Goldman Sachs who are respectable and convincing people who work hard for the happiness of the country.
On the 31st, the stock market opened for three hours and rose slightly. After that, it was closed until next Monday. Optimism began to appear, and every straw was regarded as a hemp rope.
On November 3, the stock market fell 22 points, with a trading volume of 6 million shares. On the 5th, it fell 37 points, with 6 million shares, and then rebounded slightly. From November 11 to 13, it fell 50 points. During this period, the real economy also deteriorated rapidly, and cotton Trading volume dropped sharply, wheat prices plummeted, and the leverage trading and margin trading of investment trust companies created a perfect device for stock market suicide. The reverse leverage effect quickly pulled down the stock price, and the margin system forced some liquidations to save some stocks, which were sold at the same time. The stocks in turn drive the overall stock price down, and the cycle repeats. It is said that at this time, hotel receptionists in New York would ask incoming guests whether they wanted to stay or jump off the building, because 11 well-known speculators had committed suicide, and the body of a commission merchant was fished out of the Hudson River. $4 in change and several margin calls were found in his pocket.
In mid-November, the stock market hit bottom, closing at 224 points. On September 3, it was still 452 points. President Hoover, who believed that the storm had passed, came out and announced policies to stimulate the economy and implement tax cuts. Unfortunately, the intensity was not large. . In addition, a meeting was held at the White House attended by people from all walks of life, but the main purpose was to exchange ideas, express attitudes, enhance confidence and let things go. Hoover could have taken more effective measures, but he was very satisfied with being the worst president of the 20th century. The New York Stock Exchange also joined in the fun and announced an investigation into short selling, but to no avail.
The entire country, the entire capitalist world, is in mourning!
None of this matters to Yannick. He was sent to the United States a year ago. The hard-working Erwin Schacht returned with a full load after several successful operations.
The 500 million activity fund that Yannick scraped together tripled in his hands! !