The Fox of France

Over the next few months, Paris appeared calm and everything seemed to be falling into place. On October 1st, the new National Assembly elections concluded, and the results left Lafayette disappointed. His Feuillants club secured 264 seats, while Robespierre's Jacobins won 136 seats. The remaining half of the seats were divided among royalists and unaffiliated members. Lafayette's control of the seats didn't constitute a majority, and he had to find a way to maintain the unofficial alliance between Jacobins and royalists (a secret alliance both sides vehemently denied, often attacking each other with harsh words, yet they wished each other a swift demise). To do so, he needed to gather more support.

Robespierre, however, did not seek re-election this term. Although his proposal that members should not be allowed to serve consecutive terms didn't pass, he voluntarily abstained from this round of elections. Some praised his integrity, while others speculated that he might have struck a deal with the royalists and smaller moderate factions to support Pétion's election as the Mayor of Paris in exchange for his decision not to run for re-election. Without the constraints of being a member of the Assembly, Robespierre increased his public visibility by frequently publishing articles in various newspapers.

However, these political developments did not directly impact Joseph and Napoleon's lives. Their days continued much as usual, with a slight decrease in their standard of living, despite their promotions and increased salaries. Recently, their salaries were paid in assignats, a situation affecting all, including Carnot, and even Lafayette. So, when Carnot had previously mentioned inviting them to his home, he now explained that due to economic difficulties, he needed to postpone the invitation.

Carnot, though financially comfortable, had many friends among the lower-ranking soldiers, who were struggling due to the assignat payments. He couldn't bear to see his friends suffer, which, in turn, affected his own finances.

Joseph and Napoleon did not have friends in need of financial assistance, but they still lowered their living standards to avoid drawing attention to themselves. This modest lifestyle enhanced their reputation for honesty.

Armand came to see Joseph, having become the editor of a democratic newspaper called "The Voice of Paris." Although it was a compact publication, it received support from the Jacobins. A significant portion of the newspaper's funding came from the Jacobin Club, and some articles were contributed by its members. Robespierre, however, believed that the paper was too "Jacobin" and suggested that Armand find contributors from outside the Jacobin Club to attract moderate factions.

Armand approached Joseph to write articles on scientific topics for the paper and also tried to persuade Lucien to contribute. Lucien was tempted but refrained from making a direct commitment, considering the timing to be inopportune. Joseph, aware of the risks involved at this juncture, cited his busy schedule as a reason for not being able to accept the request.

After Armand's departure, Joseph gathered his brothers for a meeting to analyze the current situation and determine the family's next course of action.

"Joseph, Napoleon, do you know where a political force like the royalists draws its strength?" Joseph asked his brothers.

This was a basic question, but Napoleon showed disdain, ignoring Joseph's query with a disdainful snort. However, Lucien dutifully responded, "The foundation of any political organization lies in its financial base. Finances are the mother of all politics. Without money, no political organization can function. The strength of an organization depends on its financial resources and how efficiently it uses them, all of which relate to its political goals."

Joseph nodded with satisfaction and continued, "Now, let's take the first political force in France, the royalists. Where does their money come from?"

Napoleon, showing interest in this question, replied, "Primarily, it comes from feudal rents, and some royalists are also involved in business. Some of the aristocracy has accumulated wealth. Additionally, foreigners may provide them with some funds. But now, collecting rents is out of the question, as peasants won't pay. Except in the most remote and isolated areas, no noble can expect rent. As for business, if they were capable of it, we wouldn't be in this situation today. Their primary financial sources are accumulation and foreign aid. Both are unsustainable, so their strength is, in fact, quite weak. They must change the situation before they exhaust their resources, or they'll be out of the game."

Joseph then posed a hypothetical question, "So, my dear brother, if you were Louis XVI, what would you do?"

Napoleon pondered for a moment and replied, "Firstly, given the current circumstances, I would have lost trust from others. I would have no choice but to align with the royalists. As for fleeing, it would be much harder now, but not entirely hopeless. The palace guards can't be vigilant forever. This is not a prison. I'd wait for an opportunity to escape, ride out of Paris, and have someone ready with a light carriage on the outside to ensure a successful escape. Afterward, I'd head to Lyon and initiate a war – that's the best option in my view."

Joseph then inquired, "What about the queen?"

Napoleon quipped, "Leave that Austrian lady in Paris. She won't get far on her own. Besides, if the Parisians killed her, it would definitely attract the intervention of other nations. Parisians aren't that foolish. So, what's there to worry about?"

Lucien raised a question, "Would the king do that?"

Napoleon responded, "He lacks the judgment and courage for it. Besides, he's not the leader of the royalists."

Joseph then asked, "And if you were the leader of the royalists, what would you do?"

Napoleon chuckled, "You mean, if I were the Count of Artois? God, how could I have such a foolish elder brother? Well, if I were the Count of Artois, I'd have to find a way to provoke war. Only through war could I have a chance of victory. Any other outcome would be slow suicide for the royalists."

Lucien chimed in, "No wonder I saw an article by Robespierre in Armand's newspaper a few days ago, where he advocated avoiding war as much as possible."

Joseph noted, "So, my brothers, analyze the situation and response of our superior, General Lafayette."

Napoleon said, "Lafayette and his associates have profited immensely from this revolution. They prefer the situation to remain stable. But by looking at the assignats, we know that this stability is unsustainable. He hasn't realized this yet and still harbors illusions. If he comprehends the situation, his only way out is to start a war."

Joseph asked for more details.

Napoleon elaborated, "If the king hadn't fled, if he had trusted Lafayette, the best course of action in that situation would be to form an alliance with Lafayette. However, Lafayette faces challenges since he cannot stabilize the situation internally, the royalists won't cooperate, and the king has lost the support of the people. His only option is to use the military and war to establish a military dictatorship similar to Caesar. However, our superior may lack Caesar's determination, courage, and military talent. He even accepted the proposal to pay the military with assignats, a decision that baffles me. He's almost as bad as our king. He doesn't consider what he has left without the military."

Joseph then inquired about the Jacobins.

Napoleon commented, "The Jacobins have the most favorable position. As the opposition party, the worse the political situation becomes, the better for them. Although they have a small presence in the assembly, they control the Paris Commune. This means they can easily incite uprisings. If the current situation continues, the Parisians will eventually revolt again. So, for them, having enough parliamentary seats to disrupt proceedings is sufficient. If the present situation persists and there's no war, their chances of victory are the highest."

Lucien added, "That's why I saw Robespierre's article in Armand's newspaper a few days ago, in which he urged to avoid war as much as possible."