Chapter 82 A big lie!
"Xia Shangshu, come back! Aren't you afraid of being deafened?"
Ji Gang was not here today, so the two clerks put down their pens and dragged Xia Yuanji back to the chair.
Xia Yuanji was sitting on the chair, still looking restlessly at the wall, as if his eyes could penetrate the wall and see the other side.
The change in Xia Yuanji's mentality is not difficult to understand.
The question "banknote law is destined to be corrupted" has been studied by the financial elites of successive empires for nearly two hundred years, but they still have no solution.
Xia Yuanji was once unconvinced. As the top financial expert of this era, he felt that he was the problem solver.
But the facts proved that he was wrong! No matter how top and smart he is, he still cannot surpass his predecessors.
Therefore, in the original view of the frustrated Xia Yuanji, this question was destined to be unsolvable.
But one day, someone suddenly said that this problem had a solution.
Xia Yuanji's first reaction was disbelief!
This is normal, because if an unknown person says that he can solve a problem that he cannot solve, wouldn't it make his talent a joke?
Besides, so many seniors can't solve it, why can you kid?
So Xia Yuanji couldn't believe it, and didn't want to believe it.
But soon, Xia Yuanji's mentality changed slightly, because the boy opposite him actually knew a lot about "economics of the country and the people", which was a very profound profession in this world. The origin, development and evolution of currency are explained clearly and logically.
And in the end, the game proved that the original problem-solving ideas would never work.
It puts forward new and eye-catching problem-solving ideas.
Xia Yuanji is not considered to be "dead if he hears the truth in the morning", but after all, this is the inner demon that has troubled him for many years.
He had a high self-esteem, and every time he dreamed about it at midnight, he thought that he would be trapped by the unsolvable problem of "corruption of money banknotes" for the rest of his life. Xia Yuanji did not know how many times he stood up in his clothes and sighed at the moon.
He wanted to know the answer to this question so much.
But now, the answer to this question is only one step away from him!
Fortunately, Jiang Xinghuo has never been a person who likes to titillate people.
Jiang Xinghuo's gentle but firm voice was amplified through the wall and spread into the secret room, forming a reverberating sound.
"How to solve the problem that no matter which country or person presided over the banknote law for two hundred years, it is difficult to continue for forty or fifty years?"
"As I said just now, I think there are two main reasons."
"The first is the entity, which is the real value that is truly created; the second is the shadow, which is the over-issued currency."
"And these two, for a traditional agricultural country that basically relies on internal circulation, form an insurmountable paradox."
"The total amount of taxes collected based on agriculture is basically fixed, which fluctuates around a baseline, that is, the fiscal revenue is basically fixed. However, the fiscal expenditures required in different periods are not fixed. Once you are unlucky, you will encounter continuous problems. Bad luck. Just like what you would encounter in a simulation game, the need for financial expenditures will surge in a short period of time."
"Demand has surged, and the country can only over-issue banknotes and rely on money printing to meet temporary needs. The over-issuance of banknotes is basically uncontrollable and will inevitably lead to the corruption of banknotes and lead to [banknote replacement]."
Hearing this, Zhu Gaoxu, who had just been numbed by the deduction of money every year in the game, nodded with deep feeling.
That's it. As a ruler of an empire, you don't pursue smooth weather. It would be good if you can survive minor disasters every year.
The worst part is that bad things often trigger a chain reaction and then fall into a vicious cycle.
The late Ming Dynasty was a typical vicious cycle like the Yuan Dynasty. For example, drought would lead to famine, and famine would lead to uprisings. Money was needed to suppress the uprisings. The court, which was busy resisting the Hou Jin, had no money. If there was no money, it would raise taxes and pay taxes. The inns were abolished, and then the invincible Ming Dynasty perished.
Li Jinglong said anxiously: "Jiang Lang, I understand the truth, but how to solve it?"
This question is also what Xia Yuanji, who is in the secret room next door, is looking forward to.
"Don't be anxious." Jiang Xinghuo glanced at him and continued.
"Of course there are ways. The first is to open the country and go abroad. Through long-term and stable cross-border trade, we can promote the industrial development of large-scale export-related manual workshops (non-factories) and workshops, so that the manufacturing industry can create more real value. It is equivalent to self-production outside of traditional agriculture. Naturally, you can get more and a steady stream of taxes. At the same time, import and export will also bring high tariff revenue. Well, that is, the import tax of foreign goods collected by the Municipal Shipping Department. .”
"Second, it is to control the shadow of banknotes and change it from a complete virtual body to a semi-entity, and then in turn complement the entity of real value."
In the secret room next door, Xia Yuanji frowned and fell into a state of hard thinking.
As mentioned before, the reason why the tributary trade system exists is because the countries in this circle with China as the core do not actually have much trade value.
In other words, only China is rich all over the world, while all the outsiders are poor and barbarian.
So what Jiang Xinghuo said is that cross-border trade promotes the development of the manufacturing industry. The development of large-scale handicraft factories outside traditional agriculture can only be achieved by breaking through the tribute trade system, just like the Yuan Dynasty, selling goods further to the far west. Go.
Then Xia Yuanji glanced at Zhu Di thoughtfully.
Therefore, this should be the intention when calling on all the clan members and nobles to sail to the West at the Mid-Autumn Festival banquet some time ago.
But not completely, maybe just a beginning.
After all, actions led by the emperor would hardly benefit the people and create new hematopoietic capabilities.
It was still too early to realize the first point, and Xia Yuanji's attention was completely attracted by the second point.
How to make the shadow of over-issuance of banknotes change from virtual to real?
I can’t figure it out!
I really can’t figure it out!
Xia Yuanji broke his head and couldn't figure this out in a short time.
It's as if there is a heavy fog ahead and you can't get out no matter what.
Li Jinglong on the other side of the wall was somewhat understanding. He recalled the previous content and asked tentatively.
"This is what Jiang Lang calls the 'silver banknote'."
"That's right!" Jiang Xinghuo nodded, "It's a silver note!"
"The first purpose is actually nothing to talk about. It's all natural. The focus we want to talk about today is the second point."
Hearing this, Zhu Di and Xia Yuanji next door held their breath at the same time.
"First of all, we need to explain clearly, what are silver notes?"
"Silver banknotes are currencies issued with silver as anchor and reserve."
Jiang Xinghuo had just explained the concept when he was interrupted by Zhu Gaoxu.
"Mr. Jiang, I know the reserve. What is an anchor?"
Jiang Xinghuo was not impatient and patiently explained to him: "Have you ever seen a ship sailing?"
"Of course I've seen it before."
Zhu Gaoxu smiled naively and spoke in a thunderous voice: "I crossed a lot of rivers back then. The anchor that Mr. Jiang mentioned sounds like a ship anchor, but I still don't quite understand it."
Jiang Xinghuo smiled and nodded: "It's pretty much the same as an anchor."
"When a ship needs to dock while sailing, it anchors the anchor point to stop it from moving forward and turning. And if the over-issuance of currency is compared to traveling with the waves, there must also be an anchor to stop it from running around. "
"In other words, the role of a currency anchor is like a ship's anchor. Because it is heavy enough to hold down the ship, it prevents the ship from sailing thousands of miles downstream."
From virtual to real, anchor.
Xia Yuanji, who was next door, seemed to have suddenly realized something. His pupils opened wider and wider.
"I understand!"
Xia Yuanji stood up with some excitement and said to Zhu Di: "I understand! If you want to turn the 'virtual' of banknotes issued entirely on the credibility of the country into 'real', you need to place something of actual value on the banknotes! "
"No, no."
Xia Yuanji suddenly broke away from his excited state. He was pacing on the spot, mumbling something.
"If what I expected is true, Jiang Xinghuo's so-called 'silver banknotes' are like the gold and silver treasury of the Yuan Dynasty, allowing the banknotes to be freely exchanged for silver. In this way, as long as the imperial court can keep the gold and silver treasury intact, The money in it can stabilize the treasure banknotes at a relative level."
"But it is not that I have never thought about adding a balance bank to the treasure banknotes to stabilize the currency value. There are two problems here. One is that when the court encounters difficulties, it will always pay attention to the gold and silver balance bank; the other is that even if it is If we don’t pay attention to this, the treasure banknotes will still increase more and more, but the amount of gold and silver mined will not keep up.”
"No, Jiang Xinghuo's idea is still not feasible! We are still following the old path of our predecessors!"
Xia Yuanji sat back on his seat with some frustration.
Zhu Di chuckled lightly.
"Why is Your Majesty laughing?" Xia Yuanji asked frustratedly.
"You are too impatient. Xia Qing is in trouble if you care."
Xia Yuanji smiled bitterly and said: "How can you not care? The most difficult thing in my life is nothing more than the law of banknotes!"
"Now I thought I had found the answer, but I didn't expect that I was still following the old path of my predecessors, which didn't work."
Unexpectedly, Zhu Di said confidently.
"The road pointed by Jiang Xinghuo is never the old road."
Zhu Di was very convinced of this, because whether it was the reduction of vassal status or the kidnapping of clan nobles to sail to the West, or the theory of national destiny and the sharing of labor into the motherland proposed later, all proved this!
Xia Yuanji, who was confused and didn't understand why Zhu Di was so sure, was at a loss for a moment.
Opposite the wall, under the old crooked neck tree.
Jiang Xinghuo said: "Actually, regarding the issue of virtual and real currency, let's go back to the debate mentioned before, whether banknotes are a piece of paper."
"My previous answer to this question was that it is not a piece of paper. You may still not believe it, because apart from the national credibility on it, there is indeed not much left. Just like the Yuan Dynasty, banknotes were changed as frequently as in the Yuan Dynasty. What credibility can a country have?”
"Before, you have simulated the changes from Zhongtong banknotes to Zhiyuan banknotes. Later, the Yuan Dynasty introduced the Zhida banknotes. The Zhida banknotes can be exchanged for 5 yuan banknotes and 10 Zhongtong banknotes. In other words, Zhongtong banknotes were again artificially devalued by 80%, with the nominal value reduced to 4% of the initial issuance. This was not over yet. In the tenth year of Zhengzheng, the Yuan Dynasty changed the banknotes again and issued additional Zhongtong banknotes. The result of this banknote change is."
"In less than two years, rebel armies were everywhere; eighteen years later, the Ming Dynasty was established."
Li Jinglong looked strange. When he thought about this not-so-distant history, he had personally simulated the role of the ruler of the Yuan Dynasty, and he began to mourn for the real ruler of the Yuan Dynasty.
I couldn't make up my mind to build the Yellow River because I was afraid of spending a lot of money and waited for the wisdom of future generations to solve it. As a result, the Yellow River burst its banks every year. When future generations wanted to build it, they directly built "My Dayuan" into the tomb.
It hurts, it hurts so much!
Jiang Xinghuo smiled and said.
"This story tells us that just having reserves is of little use, because when the court wants to use money, it will resort to reserves and secretly divert the reserves for emergencies. Then, there is a high probability that they will not be returned. , and will get more next time.”
Li Jinglong pondered for a moment before coming back to his thoughts and asked.
"So, reserves and anchors are not the same thing?"
"Of course it's not the same thing." Jiang Xinghuo said matter-of-factly.
Not the same thing?
Xia Yuanji next door was in a state of confusion.
Jiang Xinghuo's simple words disrupted all his perceptions and thoughts.
The reason why Xia Yuanji was so frustrated just now was that he believed that the so-called "anchors" were similar to the gold and silver balance treasury of the Yuan Dynasty, and were used to ensure the stability of the value of banknotes through exchange.
And now Jiang Xinghuo actually said that "anchor" and Ping Zhunku are not the same thing?
What does that mean?
Xia Yuanji was shocked. He had never heard of this brand-new concept of managing the country and benefiting the people!
I’ve never heard of it before, a proper dimensionality reduction attack!
Xia Yuanji looked at the wall eagerly, waiting for Jiang Xinghuo's explanation.
What is an anchor, after all.
"We just said that the anchor is the anchor that can stabilize the ship of paper money and not drift with the tide."
Jiang Xinghuo’s explanation is simple and easy to understand!
An anchor is something that can stabilize banknote currency, instead of overshooting and swooping into the underworld without stopping.
But this is just a metaphor and has not been implemented in practice.
So, what exactly are anchors? Xia Yuanji is now extremely eager to know the answer.
It's a pity that he can't rush to the other side of the wall, so he can only wait patiently across a wall.
Jiang Xinghuo didn't let Xia Yuanji wait too long. Jiang Xinghuo pondered for a few breaths to think about it before he said.
"Anchors have value anchors, currency anchors, and inflation anchors. We just need to understand the value anchor now. The so-called value anchor is to link the value of currency to something valuable. The simplest one is gold and Silver; for the more complicated ones, there are debts and stones, you just need to know the simple ones."
Jiang Xinghuo said with an extremely serious attitude.
"This kind of link is definitely not what you understand. One banknote can fix how much gold and silver can be exchanged! This approach of the Yuan Dynasty is useless."
"Because banknotes and inflation are naturally inseparable!"
Banknotes and inflation are inseparable. Xia Yuanji repeated this sentence repeatedly.
Hit the nail on the head!
Xia Yuanji did not believe that the other party could say such a thing since he had not studied the evolution of banknotes in depth, or his ancestors had never been engaged in the country's economic and people management.
But the paradoxical thing is that he has never even heard of the name Jiang Xinghuo!
Is it possible that there really is someone who knows it from birth?
"The so-called inflation is the phenomenon that due to the over-issuance of banknotes, purchasing the same thing requires more banknotes than in the past."
"So just like Dayu controlled the floods, it is better to remove them than to block them!"
"It is impossible to keep the price of banknotes stable and never change. Not only will the court issue more money, but the private sector will also create more real value with prosperity, which will require more banknotes as general equivalents."
After hearing this, Xia Yuanji wanted to applaud him. This was the crux of the problem. This was also the crux of the banknote law formulated by Zhu Yuanzhang, which in his opinion was bound to be corrupted.
Even if the court does not issue more treasure banknotes, as the ability of the people to create wealth increases, treasure banknotes still need to be issued in excess, otherwise the treasure banknotes will become more expensive than the paper price, thus forming an interest rate difference between treasure banknotes and copper coins.
And in Jiang Xinghuo's words, the most difficult thing to do is the words "blocking is worse than blocking."
Because all the dynasties that play with paper money, once they start to "sparse", it will be like drilling a hole in the Yellow River embankment. In a few years, the paper money will be so abundant that it will flood the sky.
So, how to ‘sparse’? How can we ensure that the currency value of banknotes can be stabilized when they are thinned out?
Xia Yuanji vaguely understood the concept of 'currency anchor'.
But he still needed Jiang Xinghuo to clear away the dark clouds before he could see the bright sun behind him.
"The value anchor is to link banknotes to the price of silver one-way, anchoring the banknotes with the price of silver, but the banknotes are not anchored to silver."
Jiang Xinghuo smiled and said: "When silver is used as an anchor rather than a reserve, there is no need for physical silver to be circulated on a large scale, nor is there a need for the country's silver holdings to be equal to the amount of banknotes issued."
"Silver will not become a real currency, and there is no need to worry about large-scale inflows of silver, causing silver to depreciate into a second treasure."
“In this way, banknotes gain both value anchoring and added value, and are no longer a piece of paper that relies solely on the country’s credibility.”
In fact, this is the principle of the precious metal standard.
Whether it is the gold standard pound or the gold standard dollar, they are linked to the price of gold, but gold is not actually circulating in the market on a large scale.
With this relatively strong anchor, the currency will not depreciate violently.
But there is a premise, that is, countries that implement the precious metal standard control most of the precious metals!
Otherwise, if the anchor is in the hands of another country, the currency system may collapse at any time due to violent price fluctuations in the anchor!
Anchors need to be absolutely stable!
This is also the reason why Ming Dynasty can only play silver treasures if it has Japanese silver mines in hand.
It was because of the Japanese silver mines that they controlled one-third of the world's silver production at this time, or in other words, almost all of Asia's silver production.
But this concept, which was not very profound in previous lives, to people of this era, is like a thunderbolt across the dark night sky!
Since the Song and Jin Dynasties, the highest method that countless financial elites have touched is to use gold and silver as reserves to equalize currency prices.
Who would have thought that using silver as an anchor, linking prices to each other, and amplifying the quantity in proportion to the circulation of banknotes?
Moreover, excess silver can also be invested in official maritime trade, forming additional free wealth plunder for foreign countries.
Shocking!
Extremely shocking!
"There is a sequence of learning, and there is a specialization in the arts. Those who master it are the teachers!"
"Today I have solved my inner demons. I thought I would never be able to exhaust the way of running the country and benefiting the people. I never thought I could go further. It is all thanks to Master Jiang."
"Master Jiang, please accept Xia's worship!"
At this time, Xia Yuanji was magnanimous, and he no longer had any thoughts of contempt in his heart. Instead, he solemnly bowed to the wall, kneeling upright.
Xia Yuanji's mind was filled with one thought.
From now on, Baochao will be saved!
Naturally, Jiang Xinghuo didn't know that someone was worshiping him across the wall. Jiang Xinghuo followed the anchor's train of thought and continued.
"After having silver as the anchor of silver banknotes, the first step is taken, but it is not enough!"
"Not enough?" Li Jinglong clicked his tongue.
"Of course it's not enough." Jiang Xinghuo said, "The second step is the silver single-track system. Only by completing the second step can the third step be realized, making silver banknotes the only settlement currency for the entire world trade system."
"When these three steps are completed, the silver banknotes will kidnap all countries in the Ming Dynasty's trading system. The inflation of the silver banknotes will be diluted and shared by the extracorporeal circulation to other countries, so that it can be maintained to the maximum extent on a hundred-year scale. Slow domestic inflation.”
"Tell a big lie and make the whole world dance!"